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	<title>Comments for Economics and Mechanisms</title>
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	<link>http://www.cogiddo.com</link>
	<description>Economics, economic theory, and mechanism design</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 11 May 2011 21:04:23 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on What the Mafia can teach us about the fiscal spending multiplier by Olaf Storbeck</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/05/what-the-mafia-can-teach-us-about-the-fiscal-spending-multiplier/comment-page-1/#comment-2450</link>
		<dc:creator>Olaf Storbeck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2011 21:04:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=413#comment-2450</guid>
		<description>Thanks for linking to my post. Much appreciated! 
Olaf  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for linking to my post. Much appreciated!<br />
Olaf</p>
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		<title>Comment on Fukuyama on Hayek by Michael Giberson</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/05/fukuyama-on-hayek/comment-page-1/#comment-2415</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Giberson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2011 16:24:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=409#comment-2415</guid>
		<description>The comment of Anton Howes (at the Adam Smith Institute blog, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/philosophy/fukuyama-vs-hayek/)&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/philosophy/fukuyama...&lt;/a&gt; may most directly address the problem in the quote above, pointing out that Hayek&#039;s point was the different ways in which governments and private entities use localized knowledge to experiment, get feedback, and respond lead the process to work reasonably well for private entities and not so well for governments. (Note that I&#039;m summarizing Howes&#039;s characterization of Hayek, so a little far from the original source. Let the reader beware.) 
 
I&#039;d say you are right in your capsule view, more or less. Hayek had a great observation and went on to apply it to develop his social and political philosophy. Other people took it in other directions, including the development of mechanism design. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The comment of Anton Howes (at the Adam Smith Institute blog, <a href="http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/philosophy/fukuyama-vs-hayek/)" rel="nofollow">http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/philosophy/fukuyama&#8230;</a> may most directly address the problem in the quote above, pointing out that Hayek&#039;s point was the different ways in which governments and private entities use localized knowledge to experiment, get feedback, and respond lead the process to work reasonably well for private entities and not so well for governments. (Note that I&#039;m summarizing Howes&#039;s characterization of Hayek, so a little far from the original source. Let the reader beware.) </p>
<p>I&#039;d say you are right in your capsule view, more or less. Hayek had a great observation and went on to apply it to develop his social and political philosophy. Other people took it in other directions, including the development of mechanism design.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Fukuyama on Hayek by ddiamantaras</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/05/fukuyama-on-hayek/comment-page-1/#comment-2349</link>
		<dc:creator>ddiamantaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 May 2011 13:23:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=409#comment-2349</guid>
		<description>Who are the many who are pointing out errors? What are the errors? 
 
My view of Hayek in a capsule is that he came up with a great observation about localized information but did not develop it into what is now mechanism design theory because of his lack of interest in mathematical tools. Fortunately, many other smart people stepped in and created the theory anyway and are still making advances. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Who are the many who are pointing out errors? What are the errors? </p>
<p>My view of Hayek in a capsule is that he came up with a great observation about localized information but did not develop it into what is now mechanism design theory because of his lack of interest in mathematical tools. Fortunately, many other smart people stepped in and created the theory anyway and are still making advances.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Fukuyama on Hayek by Greg Ransom</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/05/fukuyama-on-hayek/comment-page-1/#comment-2330</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg Ransom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 May 2011 02:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=409#comment-2330</guid>
		<description>Actually, Hayek says no such thing -- and as amny are pointing out, Fukuyama has produced an embarrassing and error filled piece. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, Hayek says no such thing &#8212; and as amny are pointing out, Fukuyama has produced an embarrassing and error filled piece.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Should economic theorists shun simulations? by afinetheorem</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/comment-page-1/#comment-621</link>
		<dc:creator>afinetheorem</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jan 2011 17:39:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=351#comment-621</guid>
		<description>I completely agree with everything except the conclusion, hah!  Much theory uses wildly wrong assumptions, much advice is guided by ideology, etc. - but testing the theory (and by testing, I suppose I mean everything from testing the assumptions to testing the &quot;predictions&quot;; I have a note I&#039;m working on that discusses five ways in which theory can be &quot;wrong&quot;, so I&#039;m leaving out the other three) does not avoid ideological problems.  From a philosophical standpoint, this is closer to someone like Quine (&quot;Word &amp; Object&quot;, for instance) than the pure positivists which seem to have strong influence on the philosophy of science thinking among economists... 
 
In any case, most theorists probably don&#039;t worry about these issues at all, so I&#039;m all for more discussion of them! </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I completely agree with everything except the conclusion, hah!  Much theory uses wildly wrong assumptions, much advice is guided by ideology, etc. &#8211; but testing the theory (and by testing, I suppose I mean everything from testing the assumptions to testing the &quot;predictions&quot;; I have a note I&#039;m working on that discusses five ways in which theory can be &quot;wrong&quot;, so I&#039;m leaving out the other three) does not avoid ideological problems.  From a philosophical standpoint, this is closer to someone like Quine (&quot;Word &amp; Object&quot;, for instance) than the pure positivists which seem to have strong influence on the philosophy of science thinking among economists&#8230; </p>
<p>In any case, most theorists probably don&#039;t worry about these issues at all, so I&#039;m all for more discussion of them!</p>
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		<title>Comment on Should economic theorists shun simulations? by ddiamantaras</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/comment-page-1/#comment-618</link>
		<dc:creator>ddiamantaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jan 2011 11:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=351#comment-618</guid>
		<description>I fear theory unconstrained by empirical testing, any valid sort of empirical testing. I realize that ABM can be seen as such a check, and conceivably (although as you say it is very hard, verging on the impossible) even econometrics, although its track record is not great. Using unfettered theory to &quot;help provide intuition to policymakers about what effects might be important and how important they might be&quot; carries the potential of an ideology, the one behind the logical proofs, hidden in the assumptions of the Foundation, pulling policy strings while potentially leading the policymakers to ruinous directions. No matter how great and transparent the proofs in the theory are, they may still be based on wildly wrong assumptions. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I fear theory unconstrained by empirical testing, any valid sort of empirical testing. I realize that ABM can be seen as such a check, and conceivably (although as you say it is very hard, verging on the impossible) even econometrics, although its track record is not great. Using unfettered theory to &quot;help provide intuition to policymakers about what effects might be important and how important they might be&quot; carries the potential of an ideology, the one behind the logical proofs, hidden in the assumptions of the Foundation, pulling policy strings while potentially leading the policymakers to ruinous directions. No matter how great and transparent the proofs in the theory are, they may still be based on wildly wrong assumptions.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Should economic theorists shun simulations? by afinetheorem</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/comment-page-1/#comment-615</link>
		<dc:creator>afinetheorem</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jan 2011 07:04:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=351#comment-615</guid>
		<description>Dimitrios, 
 
Enjoyed the comments, but I want to take issue with one of the claims above which I think is really at the heart of misunderstandings between ABM types and more traditional theorists.  &quot;Econometric testing of theoretical models&quot; is, in and of itself, completely incompatible with what I think the role of theory in social science ought be.  As you noted, physicists and chemists attempt to write models of better and better match with reality, hoping to actually pin down parameters in nature.  For complexity reasons, such a goal is hopeless in economics.  Rather, economic theorems can only, using math for standardization and formality, state logical arguments about how interagent interactions aggregate.  They help provide intuition to policymakers about what effects might be important and how important they might be.  They do not, in the strict sense, make predictions. 
 
So then, why ambivalence about ABM?  Since theory provides arguments only, and since the mathematical structure itself *is* the argument, only an argument written in a consistent way which follows a foundational paradigm and allows simple comparison with earlier work, the proof *itself* is the critical component of theory.  Although simulation is, as you note, nothing but a series of proofs, the exact nature of how those proofs work is what is hidden in the black box.  I happen to like a lot of the simulation work, so (as I&#039;m sure you agree) the final argument, the analogy, the intuition about what might be going on in society can be more easily and more comprehensively read from the output of a simulation than from a traditional theorem.  But the black box hides the proof itself from future researchers, which in a real sense limits the ability of social science to progress. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dimitrios, </p>
<p>Enjoyed the comments, but I want to take issue with one of the claims above which I think is really at the heart of misunderstandings between ABM types and more traditional theorists.  &quot;Econometric testing of theoretical models&quot; is, in and of itself, completely incompatible with what I think the role of theory in social science ought be.  As you noted, physicists and chemists attempt to write models of better and better match with reality, hoping to actually pin down parameters in nature.  For complexity reasons, such a goal is hopeless in economics.  Rather, economic theorems can only, using math for standardization and formality, state logical arguments about how interagent interactions aggregate.  They help provide intuition to policymakers about what effects might be important and how important they might be.  They do not, in the strict sense, make predictions. </p>
<p>So then, why ambivalence about ABM?  Since theory provides arguments only, and since the mathematical structure itself *is* the argument, only an argument written in a consistent way which follows a foundational paradigm and allows simple comparison with earlier work, the proof *itself* is the critical component of theory.  Although simulation is, as you note, nothing but a series of proofs, the exact nature of how those proofs work is what is hidden in the black box.  I happen to like a lot of the simulation work, so (as I&#039;m sure you agree) the final argument, the analogy, the intuition about what might be going on in society can be more easily and more comprehensively read from the output of a simulation than from a traditional theorem.  But the black box hides the proof itself from future researchers, which in a real sense limits the ability of social science to progress.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Should economic theorists shun simulations? by Tweets that mention Should economic theorists shun simulations? &#124; Economics and Mechanisms -- Topsy.com</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/comment-page-1/#comment-607</link>
		<dc:creator>Tweets that mention Should economic theorists shun simulations? &#124; Economics and Mechanisms -- Topsy.com</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Jan 2011 21:39:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=351#comment-607</guid>
		<description>[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by ddiamantaras, ddiamantaras. ddiamantaras said: My new post on economists&#039; shunning of computer simulations: http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/ [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by ddiamantaras, ddiamantaras. ddiamantaras said: My new post on economists&#039; shunning of computer simulations: <a href="http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cogiddo.com/2011/01/should-economic-theorists-shun-simulations/</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Bank of Sweden Prize in economics in memory of Alfred Nobel 2010 by Tweets that mention Bank of Sweden Prize in economics in memory of Alfred Nobel 2010 &#124; Economics and Mechanisms -- Topsy.com</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2010/10/bank-of-sweden-prize-in-economics-in-memory-of-alfred-nobel-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-191</link>
		<dc:creator>Tweets that mention Bank of Sweden Prize in economics in memory of Alfred Nobel 2010 &#124; Economics and Mechanisms -- Topsy.com</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Oct 2010 16:05:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=337#comment-191</guid>
		<description>[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by ddiamantaras, ddiamantaras. ddiamantaras said: On the 2010 Bank of Sweden economics prize in memory of Alfred Nobel http://ow.ly/2RFCp [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by ddiamantaras, ddiamantaras. ddiamantaras said: On the 2010 Bank of Sweden economics prize in memory of Alfred Nobel <a href="http://ow.ly/2RFCp" rel="nofollow">http://ow.ly/2RFCp</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on New theme: Typominima by ddiamantaras</title>
		<link>http://www.cogiddo.com/2010/10/new-theme-typominima/comment-page-1/#comment-186</link>
		<dc:creator>ddiamantaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Oct 2010 17:45:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=329#comment-186</guid>
		<description>Never mind. The new theme broke the site. Back to the default theme with the Typekit fonts. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Never mind. The new theme broke the site. Back to the default theme with the Typekit fonts.</p>
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