http://www.cogiddo.com/2009/07/economists-cannot-predict/ Economics, economic theory, and mechanism design Wed, 11 May 2011 21:04:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.cogiddo.com/2009/07/economists-cannot-predict/comment-page-1/#comment-14 ddiamantaras Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:15:38 +0000 http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=68#comment-14 Sorry it took so long to approve your comment. I was away for some days and did not have my Intense Debate credentials with me:( I will check out the Montier book. Thanks for the good words and the suggestion about the Kenneth part. I am pretty sure it was not Kenneth Arrow, at least. Sorry it took so long to approve your comment. I was away for some days and did not have my Intense Debate credentials with me:( I will check out the Montier book. Thanks for the good words and the suggestion about the Kenneth part. I am pretty sure it was not Kenneth Arrow, at least.

]]> http://www.cogiddo.com/2009/07/economists-cannot-predict/comment-page-1/#comment-12 Pat Bradley Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:53:28 +0000 http://www.cogiddo.com/?p=68#comment-12 I think you are correct about the Kenneth part of the quote. But there's a certain glibness about it.. I'm going to forecast its John Kenneth Galbraith as the source. On the topic of poor forecasting, you may be interested in James Montier's "The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore All Economists, Strategists, and Analysts." The thesis: people stink at forecasting. Why? Overconfidence. What's your view of the prediction markets like Intrade, for example? The site is nteresting. I hope you generate readers. I'll keep checking back. I think you are correct about the Kenneth part of the quote. But there's a certain glibness about it.. I'm going to forecast its John Kenneth Galbraith as the source. On the topic of poor forecasting, you may be interested in James Montier's "The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore All Economists, Strategists, and Analysts." The thesis: people stink at forecasting. Why? Overconfidence. What's your view of the prediction markets like Intrade, for example? The site is nteresting. I hope you generate readers. I'll keep checking back.

]]>